Feed: Boom and bust
One of the biggest issues in aquafeed is the availability – and therefore the price – of marine ingredients. This is a cyclical issue, and the bad news for anyone farming salmon, shrimp or any carnivorous species is that this year is likely to see a downturn in supply.
The reason is that this is an “El Niño” year – and some climate experts are predicting that it will be a “super El Niño”.
El Niño refers to a climate pattern characterised by the unusual warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, particularly along the equator.
It is part of a larger natural cycle called the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) cycle. It is often described as Earth’s biggest climate driver – when the Pacific shifts into an El Niño phase, it triggers a domino effect that changes weather patterns all over the planet.
This can mean drought in some parts of the world and heavy rainfall elsewhere, impacting terrestrial agriculture. For fisheries, however, the biggest impact is likely to be on the Peruvian anchovy fishery, which is probably the single most important source of forage fish for fishmeal and fish oil.
An El Niño year typically has a drastic, mostly negative impact on the global catch of forage fish (small pelagic species like anchovies, sardines, herrings and mackerels). However, the exact effect depends entirely on the specific species and where they live.
The primary driver behind this disruption is a shift in ocean temperatures and currents, which fundamentally alters the marine food chain.
Under normal ocean conditions, strong trade winds push warm surface water westward across the Pacific. This allows cold, nutrient-rich water from the deep ocean to rise to the surface along the coast of South America (a process called upwelling). This deep water triggers massive blooms of phytoplankton, which serve as the primary food source for billions of forage fish.
During an El Niño year, these trade winds weaken or reverse, meaning:
• Nutrient deprivation: Warm water caps the coast, driving the thermocline (the boundary between warm surface water and deep cold water) much deeper. Upwelling stops, starving the phytoplankton.
• The starvation cascade: Without phytoplankton, zooplankton populations crash. Forage fish, which rely on these plankton, face mass starvation, reduced spawning success and heavy mortality.
The Peruvian anchoveta fishery is the largest single-species fishery on Earth, and it bears the brunt of El Niño. Anchovies are strictly cold-water fish. When El Niño hits:
• Population collapses: Starvation causes massive die-offs. For example, severe El Niño events (like 1972, 1997–1998, and 2023) have historically caused anchovy populations to crash, forcing governments to completely cancel fishing seasons to prevent total fishery collapse.
• Habitat compression: In a desperate bid to survive, remaining anchovies squeeze into tiny, remaining pockets of cold water very close to the shore or dive much deeper, making them highly vulnerable to predators and unevenly concentrated for fishing fleets. Sardines, jack mackerels and thread herrings are much more tolerant of warmer, nutrient-poor waters.
• Habitat expansion: As the cold-water anchovy habitat shrinks, the warm-water sardine habitat expands toward the coasts.
• Catch displacement: While total forage fish biomass generally declines during El Niño, fishermen often shift their effort, resulting in an increase in sardine and mackerel landings.
In the short term, IFFO, the international marine ingredients organisation, reports that the phenomenon has already started to take effect.
IFFO’s latest update says that in Peru, which accounts for 20% of global fishmeal and fish oil production in a normal year, the anchoveta fishing season has progressed slowly due to the high incidence of juveniles and the resulting management measures, under ongoing Coastal El Niño conditions.
Enrico Bachis, Market Research Director at IFFO, said: “A new extended fishing ban was imposed in the north centre of the country on 27 May, as warm water and high juvenile presence suggest a precautionary management of the anchovy biomass. The new ban will be running until 10 June.”
In Chile, cumulative catches and fishmeal output remain significantly below last year despite stable salmon by-product availability.
In the US, Gulf menhaden fishing has started better than last year, IFFO says, while the Atlantic season is scheduled to begin in June. Meanwhile, in Northern Europe, the blue whiting activity eased sharply as the main season winds down in Iceland and Norway, while Denmark continues to report weak sand eel and sprat fishing.
In China, IFFO reports that domestic production of marine ingredients remains constrained following the implementation of fishing bans on 1 May. As a result, raw material supply is relying primarily on frozen fish accumulated prior to the moratorium, as well as by-products generated during processing.
Supported by tight supply and a recovery in demand, local production of fishmeal and fish oil in the first four months of 2026 actually exceeded year-on-year levels.
Generally, however, the tightening of supply for marine ingredients is likely to focus further attention on alternative sources of protein for aquafeed.
Taking the challenge
Can farmed fish do without marine ingredients altogether? Plant-eating species like tilapia certainly can, but some of the world’s favourite farmed fish species are currently dependent on wild-caught fish.
Not-for-profit organisation F3 – Future of Fish Feed is hoping to prove this can change, however. Three aquaculture businesses from Japan, the US and China will compete in the first phase of the F3 Fish Farm Challenge, a competition that aims to show that carnivorous fish can be raised on feeds free of marine-animal ingredients.
The challenge is hosted by F3 – Future of Fish Feed, and will feature three species: red sea bream, rainbow trout and largemouth bass.
Kevin Fitzsimmons, Chair of F3 - Future of Fish Feed and Professor at the University of Arizona, said: “We are excited for a competitive race from this first cohort of aquaculture producers.
“These farmers are proof that some of the world’s most sought-after fish can be commercially raised on 100% fish-free feed, demonstrating that investing in feed innovation now can build a more resilient path forward for the industry.”
The US $90,000 (£66,880) grand prize will be awarded to the farm that sells the most eligible fish by weight during the 11-month sales competition, which showcases aquaculture producers commercially raising carnivorous finfish on feeds made entirely without marine-animal ingredients.
Participants in the F3 Challenge two-year contest track include:
• Japan-based Dainichi Corporation. Founded in 1982 and based in Uwajima, Ehime, Dainichi specialises in fish feed development and fish farming, exporting to over 20 countries. It will participate in the F3 contest with its Aquaculture Stewardship Council- and Marine Eco-Label Japan-certified red seabream (Pagrus major).
• US-based McFarland Springs Trout. Founded in 1984, McFarland Springs Trout raises the native Eagle Lake rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) on a 100% vegetarian, non-GMO plant-based diet on its hydro-electric powered farm at the headwaters of California’s Susan River.
• China-based Zhang Yi Farm. Founded in 2022 and located in Jiangsu Province, Zhang Yi Farm is a family-owned, multi-generational sustainable fish farm producing largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). The farm is partnered with China-based, previous F3 Challenge winner Jiangsu Fuhai Biotech, which produces its Fatide® feed product from dehulled full-fat soybean fermented by microbes and enzymes.
F3 said: “Aquaculture has emerged as one of the world’s fastest-growing food production sectors, supplying more than half of all seafood consumed globally and nearly one-fifth of all animal-sourced protein. Yet many of the world’s most popular farmed seafood species still rely heavily on feeds made with wild-caught marine ingredients such as fishmeal, fish oil and krill.
“As global demand for seafood continues to rise, that dependence could become a major constraint on the industry’s future growth. A recent study published in Nature Food found that despite significant advances in the efficient use of fishmeal and fish oil, aquaculture will still require an additional 1.8 million metric tons of alternative feed ingredients annually to sustain production under future supply constraints.”
The analysis, led by Xiamen University Professor and F3 Challenge Judge Ling Cao, also found that climate change and tighter fishery management measures, such as those seen during El Niño events, could reduce global forage fish catches by up to nearly 20%. These declines in a critical feed input sourced from wild fisheries could potentially lead to a 35% decline in fed aquaculture production – and reductions of more than 70% for some high-value farmed species – if alternative feed ingredients are not scaled.
The F3 Challenge supports the development and adoption of nutritionally equivalent alternatives to fishmeal, fish oil and krill to help build a more resilient and diversified aquaculture industry. Expanding the use of alternative ingredients can also reduce pressure on wild fisheries while strengthening food security and environmental sustainability across the seafood sector.
The F3 Fish Farm Challenge features two contest tracks, with registration for the four-year track open unitl April 30, 2028. This second phase of the F3 Fish Farm Challenge rewards aquaculture producers embarking on new feed and farming innovations, and those raising slower-growing carnivorous species.
Protein from single cell organisms
Some of the most important elements in marine aquafeed ingredients, like marine omega‑3 oils (EPA and DHA), are actually derived from microalgae further down the food chain, and are consumed in turn by small zooplankton, small forage fish and then larger carnivorous fish.
This has led many to question whether it would be more sustainable to produce protein and lipids directly from cultivating microalgae and other organisms.
The Centre for Feed Innovation (CFI), a think tank dedicated to accelerating the development of novel feed ingredients, argues that single-cell proteins (SCPs) can replace up to 100% of fishmeal in shrimp feeds, and up to 50% for certain fish species, while maintaining or improving growth, health and feed efficiency.
That is the headline finding of CFI’s 2026 State of the Industry Report on Single-Cell Proteins, the most comprehensive assessment of SCPs as an aquafeed ingredient to date.
CFI estimates that global SCP production for aquafeed stood at 30,000-40,000 metric tonnes (MT) in 2025. Based on announced investments and industry forecasts, output could reach between 150,000 and 500,000 MT by 2030, representing more than a tenfold increase in five years.
Building on CFI’s 2025 Algal Oil State of the Industry Report, CFI’s new report assesses how SCPs can serve as a nutritionally strong, sustainable and safe alternative to fishmeal. It finds that SCPs offer clear environmental and biodiversity advantages over fishmeal. By decoupling protein production from wild fisheries, SCPs reduce pressure on marine ecosystems. When renewable energy and circular feedstocks, such as biogas, are used, greenhouse gas emissions from SCP production can be comparable to or lower than those of fishmeal.
SCPs are emerging globally as a novel protein ingredient of growing interest to major aquafeed producers, driven by rising fishmeal prices and mounting ecological pressure on marine fisheries. In the near term, SCPs are expected to complement rather than fully replace fishmeal, as feed strategies rely on a mix of ingredients to optimise cost, nutrition and performance. The report concludes that the future growth of the aquaculture industry will depend, in part, on its ability to scale and source SCPs effectively.
Fishmeal shortages are projected to emerge as early as 2028, with demand forecast to exceed supply by up to 25% of total production by 2030. The major barriers to scaling SCP supply today are high capital intensity and operating costs, followed by regulatory gaps and uneven feedstock availability. Over the longer term, greater investment in larger-scale facilities, improved strain efficiencies and access to low-cost feedstocks could establish SCPs as a strong and preferred replacement for fishmeal.
To sustainably scale SCPs, the report recommends:
1. SCP producers should improve strain efficiencies, use renewable energy and co-locate production near low-cost, circular feedstocks to improve unit economics and sustainability.
2. Aquafeed producers should deepen partnerships with SCP suppliers, validate performance and support broader adoption through offtake agreements.
3. Investors can support large-scale production facilities to help suppliers achieve economies of scale and accelerate commercial deployment.
4. Policymakers should expand regulatory support in key markets and put in place financing mechanisms for novel feed ingredients.
5. Civil society organisations and certifiers are encouraged to raise public awareness of the benefits of SCPs for food security, climate, safety and biodiversity to build informed consumer demand.
Aashish Khimasia, Director of Research with CFI, says: “Fishmeal shortages are projected to emerge as early as 2028, creating pressure for the aquaculture industry to source alternatives at scale.
“Our report finds that single-cell proteins are a technically validated option. SCPs can fully replace fishmeal in shrimp feeds, and replace half of it in certain fish species, while matching or improving animal performance. Furthermore, SCPs provide a clear ecological and environmental advantage, with one tonne of SCPs estimated to replace up to six tonnes of wild-caught fish.
“The technical case is established, and early commercial integration is underway; wider adoption now hinges on realising projected capacity and sustained investment to support production at scale.”
Producing these proteins in land-based plants would not only ease pressure on ocean biodiversity, but also free the industry from the cycle of rising and falling prices. The question, however, is whether investment in alternative proteins can be sustained in periods when the climate cycle makes forage fish abundant again.
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