Chile facing modest salmon growth in 2026
Chile is expecting modest salmon export growth this year, but that prediction was made before President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threat against other salmon producing countries.
Chile is expecting modest salmon export growth this year, depending on what happens with US tariffs.
Chile is unlikely to be paying higher tariffs at least until later in the year.
The Chilean salmon industry is forecast to grow by around 4.2% in 2026, says analyst Cristian Delgado, a PhD student in Economics and Business and academic at the San Sebastián University on the Patagonia Campus.
The prediction is based on projections from the Chile Central Bank.
He told the new outlet Aqua Media: “As is well known, Chile’s economic growth relies heavily on exports, which are projected to increase by 1.8% this year.
“In this context, the salmon-farming sector showed a slight recovery in 2025 compared to the previous two years, with growth of around 3% annually.”
He estimated that this year the sector’s exports will grow slightly more than in 2025, provided no new adverse shocks arise and current conditions persist, taking into account production cycles and the industry’s inherent seasonality.
Specifically, the United States is expected to register growth of 1.7% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, while Japan is projected to show more modest expansions of 0.3% and 0.7%, respectively.
Dr Delgado warned that the impact of geopolitical and tariff factors on the competitiveness of Chilean salmon food exports were highly sensitive to changes in tariff rates.
He added: “The elasticity or sensitivity of exports to changes in tariffs has proven to be greater in the case of food.
“This is because, faced with price increases, consumers in importing countries tend to seek out close substitutes to replace the product that now has a higher price.”
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